The Red Sea Crisis and the US-Iran Proxy War
- Sheu Hirst
- Jan 23, 2024
- 7 min read
Updated: May 20, 2024
2023’s final geopolitical dilemma materialised in the context of the grave and dire consequences of the ongoing geopolitical struggle between the US and Iran.
The Iranian backed Houthi rebels have maintained their self-proclaimed crusade in support of Hamas with a barrage of attacks on global shipping which threatens global supply chains and risks a wider regional conflict. The red lines by Western powers were set, continued attempts to hold global shipping and freedom of navigation hostage would not go without consequences. The Houthis did not abide and ramped up provocative attacks on civilian shipping and vainly engaging US and UK naval vessels in the region. Now, once again the Middle East is the site of a coordinated Western intervention. In the calculus of Western officials, reestablishing deterrence is key but they remain cautious and largely on the backfoot. For the Houthis and more significantly Iran, another opportunity to pressure and undermine the West has arisen and it is one they are eager to exploit.
The Red Sea and Global Commerce
Shipping routes across the ocean are vital to international commerce. Through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea is one of the most travelled commerce routes in the world and the quickest sea route between Asia and Europe. Up to 17,000 vessels pass through the Suez Canal every year, accounting for 12% of global commerce - equivalent to $1trillion USD worth of merchandise. Only in 2021 was its significance underscored during the Ever Given mega-container ship incident. The blockage of the passage cost an estimated $9.6 billion USD worth of goods to be immobilised for days due to the lengthy queue of hundreds of ships unable to use the canal. Any prolonged disruption to the Red Sea would to the Red Sea, in which passage through the Suez Canal could not be maintained, has the potential to be felt by consumers worldwide but would be concentrated in Europe whose economies depend on a steady flow of imports: energy from the Middle East and goods from Asia. The severity of such a situation cannot be understated given that inflationary pressures from the pandemic and Ukraine-Russian war have only recently started to ebb.
The Red Sea is undeniably a strategically significant maritime passageway but its geopolitical context exacerbates the dire vulnerabilities to global supply chains and acute threats to regional stability. The region has been the site of ongoing tensions between Western aligned assets and interests with that of malign actors such as piracy off the coast of Somalia and Iran has harassed oil shipping in the Gulf in a bid to gain leverage over the US. However, this recent spat in the Red Sea, in which Iran is effectively employing the Houthis as a proxy against the West, risks disrupting global supply chains and tests the restraint of the US military.
The Houthis, Iran and the Western Red Lines
The Houthis are the dominant political force in Yemen, they champion Yemen’s Shia muslim minority, the Zaidis, and first emerged to power in the aftermath of the Arab Spring in 2011 having previously fought a series of rebellions to win greater autonomy for strongholds in northern Yemen during the 2000s. The popular uprising in 2011 saw long-time authoritarian President Ali Adbullah Saleh step down, handing power to his deputy Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi who led an inevitably weaker government overwhelmed by incompetence and turmoil. The Houthis would later seize control of the Saada province and capture the capital, forcing the government to flee. As a group aligned with Iran, Saudi Arabia feared the complete takeover of Yemen and the set up of an Iranian satellite state on its border. In 2015 it formed and led a coalition of Gulf states that intervened in the civil war through a campaign of economic isolation and air strikes against the Houthi rebels, with US logistical and intelligence support. This campaign, however, became a fiasco for Saudi Arabia. The humanitarian situation in Yemen became dire, 160,000 people were killed, over four million were displaced and a severe food insecurity crisis has emerged. All this and the Houthis are stronger than ever. Since April 2022 a UN-brokered truce has seen a cessation of hostilities but this truce appears ever-more fragile in the wake of the fast-changing geopolitical dilemma in the region.
Until now, the Houthis have amassed little coverage on the international scene despite being involved in arguably one of the worst humanitarian crises this century. The civil war that broke out in 2014 was a concern for regional security and the subsequent civilian casualties and famine made sporadic headlines in Western media but beyond outlets and think tanks with a specific interest in international crises or conflicts, little attention was given to the Houthis. This all changed towards the end of 2023 and continued into the new year as the Houthis, emboldened by their malign backer Iran and growing sense of insecurity in the region, have sought to terrorise a global commons and even dared to attack Western naval vessels sent precisely to deter their attacks. Although the Houthi attacks are inherently reckless and seek to cause chaos, they appear to be coordinated to threaten primarily the West. Russian and Chinese linked ships have had limited encounters with Houthi threats, implying a possible strategy to leave them undisturbed whereas Western linked ships have seemingly borne the brunt of the aggression being projected from Houthi strongholds in Yemen. The Houthis are basking in their newfound coverage, relevance and prestige. They have the attention of the reigning superpower and the world’s media, but their attacks, though significant in their own right, form another component in a much larger geopolitical struggle contested between the US and Iran.
The Houthis represent one of the key actors in Iran’s axis of resistance which Iran employs as a mechanism to pressure and undermine Israel and the US along with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and militia groups in Iraq and Syria. Iran is directly responsible for Houthi military capabilities, providing them with training, arms and intelligence. This strategy is consistent with Iran’s malign and rogue foreign policy that seeks to exploit the very chaos it is directly or indirectly responsible for. Since the collapse of the Iranian Nuclear Deal under the Trump administration, Iran has sought to undermine sanctions by attacking tankers in the Gulf and is walking to the edge of nuclear weapons capability, but has carefully kept below the threshold for bomb-grade fuel. Such a step would inevitably destabilise the region and alter the security calculus of regional actors with some speculating that this leap may trigger military action against its nuclear sites. Again, there is leverage here for Tehran which is not yet prepared to give up.
Like the US, Iran wants to avoid a direct confrontation therefore employs these militant groups as proxies that can provocatively engage the US and the West more broadly, whilst Iran delicately dances around subtle signals, attacks and feints. It is unclear if Iran has ordered the recent Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, nevertheless, there is no question Iran has backed their actions, and US intelligence indicates that Iranian officials support the Houthi strategy on the grounds that an escalating conflict will increase costs to the West — without risking a wider war.
The US Led Response
A US led coalition first sought to establish a deterrence through an enhanced naval protection force consisting of the UK, Canada, Australia, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and the Seychelles. The bulk of the deterrence was to be provided by US and UK naval warships sent to the region along with stern warnings from their respective leaders: seize all attacks on shipping or bear the consequences. The Houthis did not abide and in response to the continued threats posed by their drone and ballistic missile attacks on global shipping and their verboten attacks on British naval vessels such as HMS Diamond and a US carrier strike group patrolling the region, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak authorised military action by their respective militaries in a coordinated strike against 60 targets across 16 locations in Yemen including the capital Sana’a, the key port city of Hodeida and a Houthi military base. The military intervention and chosen targets had a specific aim of reducing Houthi Red Sea military capabilities and hinder any future efforts to wreak havoc in the sea, targeting launch sites, munitions depots, radar, air defences and military bases. Intentionally, the attack was to be anticipated, limiting potential for casualties among Houthi leadership in a demonstration that there was no desire for symmetric escalation.
Contrary to media coverage and much of the rhetoric from those opposed to the development, the joint military action was not intended as an escalatory measure nor was it intended to completely decapitate the Houthis. Rather, the US and UK stood their ground on their red lines and sought to protect their interests in freedom of navigation for global sea lanes and acted in defence when drones and missiles were launched against their naval vessels. The legal justification for these acts was established when the UN Security Council passed a resolution - obtained by China and Russia abstaining - demanding the Houthis end their attacks and maintained that in accordance with international law, states have the right “to defend their vessels from attack, including those that undermine navigational rights and freedoms”. The US has since launched solitary strikes on Houthi targets and it is likely more will continue as neither side contemplates standing down.
What Happens Next?
As of yet, there is no substantive assessment - at least in the public domain - that illustrates the impact of the recent air strikes. However, a common analysis is that they are unlikely to have eliminated Houthi capabilities and attacks will likely continue as the Houthis seek to provoke and taunt the US but this will only warrant more retaliatory US airstrikes thus will render the Houthi strategy unsustainable. Likewise, the US position is extremely complicated given that they have no appetite for continued military action but are ultimately forced to respond using more expensive arms against comparatively cheaper Houthi capabilities that are mobile and hard to locate. Currently, the Houthis pose no major threat to US security interests and are unlikely to do so in the future. The Houthi threat comes from their ability to sow instability in the Red Sea and knock on effects on the markets and inflation, and Iran will continue to support these actions as a method of undermining US interests. The prospect for escalation is real, although small, the Houthis have previously demonstrated their lack of rationality and recklessness but it is likely any impulses or overreaches will be tamed by Iran who seeks to avoid drawing the US into greater military involvement in the region. Iran has established a coercive international strategy maintained by the various militant groups it backs in the region. Although Iran may seek to engage the US slightly below the threshold for direct confrontation, its strategy is inherently unstable and chaotic, perpetuating the threat of regional escalation and conflict. The US on the other hand, under strain from the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and mindful of an emerging geopolitical struggle with China in the Indo-Pacific, will timorously uphold its position as regional hegemon and protect its interests, wary of the political consequences for any miscalculations.
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