The Significance to Ukraine's Incursion into Russia

Ukraine has launched an incursion into the Kursk region of Russia, making substantial gains. Unlike previous Ukrainian raids into Russian territory, this most recent incursion appears to be a larger sustained attack.

Photo by David Peinado: https://www.pexels.com/photo/artillery-and-mortar-shells-spread-out-in-the-yard-11796800/

Recently, Russia has been experiencing a series of military successes in Ukraine, making this latest incursion into the Kursk region a surprising development. Videos circulating online show Ukrainian jets flying into Russian airspace and Russian troops surrendering to Ukrainian forces. While the situation is still developing, it is unclear to see what Kyiv's objective is with this invasion.

A leading potential reason for this attack is to force Russia to pull troops away from the main frontlines in Southeast Ukraine. This would help boost morale and relieve Ukrainian troops in the region that has faced a large summer offensive, in which Russia has taken more swaths of Ukrainian land. Additionally, the invasion of Kursk will make the Kremlin reconsider its entire strategy in the war, as the attack has revealed the entire Russo-Ukrainian border is now susceptible to the Ukrainian army. The significance of this is that it will apply much larger pressure and more man power needs on Russia's forces.

On the other hand, the attack shows the growing desperation of Ukraine's war effort. Ignoring the West's position on no Ukrainian attacks within Russia itself signals this, with Ukraine's former Minister of Defence stating they are not "fighting for approval, but fighting for our lives". This is in the face of a potential Trump victory at the upcoming U.S election, which will certainly mean a massive reduction of U.S support for Ukraine. Additionally, as mentioned, this year Russia has launched a series of large scale offensives on the South East frontline, which has taken a heavy toll on Ukraine's already alarming main power problems.